SPORTING LIFE-INFOGOL: WHO WILL WIN THE PREMIER LEAGUE?
City streaks ahead, say xG experts
The Premier League is back – well, nearly. Although slightly earlier than usual due to this year’s winter World Cup, the best league in the world will be welcomed back with open arms. Last season was thrilling, with the title going down to the last game; let’s hope for more of the same.
Manchester City are looking to win their fifth title in six seasons, and Liverpool will be looking to push them all the way yet again.
The bookmakers make it a two-horse race in 2022/23, as do we at Sporting Life-Infogol, and we see little value in backing either to win the league – more on what we do think is worth a look in a moment.
Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp have set a new standard in England’s top flight, with their teams performing at incredible levels; more of the same is expected this term.
City posted an expected goal difference (xGD) per game of +1.75 in 21/22, with Liverpool a close second at +1.58.
The gap to the rest? Just 0.76 xG per game. That’s the equivalent of two big chances (0.35+ xG) more than the next best team on a game-to-game basis.
That is a huge amount of ground for the rest of the league to make up, and I don’t see a reason why both City and Liverpool won’t find the same levels.
All of that means I think it will be the same two teams at the top, but with the Citizens prevailing again, making the MAN CITY/LIVERPOOL STRAIGHT FORECAST the opening selection of this preview.
CLICK HERE to back Manchester City/Liverpool Straight Forecast with Sky Bet
Defence usually wins titles, and ultimately City are the best defensive team in the land - and have been for some time.
In fact, ever since Pep Guardiola took charge at the Etihad, City have posted the best defensive process (xGA per game) in every season.
Pep’s side are so well drilled. They win the ball back quickly and dominate possession meaning their opponents rarely create chances.
That is where they have the edge on Liverpool. The Reds are arguably the more reliable attacking side, but there are doubts defensively compared to City.
Adding Erling Haaland only strengthens our opinion that City will clinch another title.
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