Using Infogol’s expected goal (xG) data, which provides a rating for every Premier League club, Sporting Life can use a model to simulate every game of the season tens of thousands of times to get the most likely finishing position for each team.

Alongside data gathered by the Sky Bet Fan Hope Survey that gives us two tables to compare: fan opinion and xG data.

Unlike fan opinion, the Infogol model has no biases - it is purely data driven.

By taking xG-led team ratings that have been calculated over the last 200 matches - weighted to the most recent 15 - we can simulate every game of the league season tens of thousands of times to get the most likely finishing position for each team.

Despite the stark differences in fan and xG data, the very top of the tables look extremely similar.

The first difference we see is for ARSENAL to finish fourth according to the fans, a place above north London rivals TOTTENHAM. The Infogol model has Spurs clinching a Champions League place and the Gunners in sixth.

Sixth place is reserved for Manchester United in the fan table, a place lower than us. The remainder of the top 10 is quite the contradiction, and where xG really starts to show its hand.

CRYSTAL PALACE and BRIGHTON sit seventh and eighth in the Infogol table, six and four places higher respectively than the Fan Hope survey ranks them.

Any followers of expected goals data won’t be surprised that they are the biggest eye-catchers in the Infogol table. Palace, who finished 12th last season, ranked as the sixth-best team in the Premier League based on expected points (xP) and expected goal difference (xGD), with their turnaround under Patrick Vieira simply remarkable statistically.

Brighton’s ninth-placed finish was the very least they deserved, ranking as the seventh-based team in the Premier League according to Infogol.

Our ‘data darlings’ nudge the fan table’s seventh and eighth-best teams, West Ham and Newcastle, down a couple of places to ninth and 10th – so we’re not miles apart.

The same cannot be said for Leicester.

Ranked ninth by the Fan Hope survey, we place them 14th this term after their terrible performances last term. Somehow they scraped up to eighth with a late-season run.
Defence was their major issue, with only Norwich and Leeds allowing more xGA than the Foxes in 21/22. In fact, Infogol rated them as the third-worst team in the division according to performance.

At the bottom, both Sporting Life-Infogol have Nottingham Forest propping up the table, but the fans have established top-flight clubs Southampton and Everton being relegated alongside Bournemouth - in disagreement with the Infogol model.
Forest’s fellow new boys Fulham and Bournemouth are tipped to join them in making a swift return to the Sky Bet Championship according to the data, but it’s important to bear in mind that any pre-season xG forecast is always likely to go against newly-promoted teams.

And we’re certainly not miles apart, anticipating that Southampton and Everton face a season of struggle, with Saints’ forecast for 17th and the Toffees’ 15th.

Only Norwich posted worse underlying numbers over the second half of the campaign than the Saints, which should have alarm bells ringing on the south coast.

As for Frank Lampard and Everton, they’ll need to be much, much better - especially now Richarlison has left for Tottenham - or the fans could be right. We certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing them for the drop.